Mike’s Week 5 NFL bet picks review

Starting Bankroll: $3,890

Jacksonville Jaguars (+130) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers for $100.  Actual score: Buccaneers 38, Jaguars 31 (Loss)

Atlanta Falcons (-7 EV) over Washington Redskins for $100.  Actual score: Falcons 25, Redskins 19 (Loss)

Chicago Bears (+375) over Kansas City Chiefs for $100.  Actual score: Bears 18, Chiefs 17 (Win)

LOTW Chicago Bears (+10) over Kansas City Chiefs for $110.  Actual score: Bears 18, Chiefs 17 (Win)

New Orleans Saints (+210) over Philadelphia Eagles for $100.  Actual score: Eagles 39, Saints 17 (Loss)

Oakland Raiders (+180) over Denver Broncos for $100.  Actual score: Broncos 16, Raiders 10 (Loss)

Total Bets: $610

Total Win: $685

Week 4 Net: $75 Win

2015 Total thru Week 4: $3,965 (-$35)

Nailed It

The money line.  I love the money line.  I stated my love for them since Week 1, and they bailed me out this week.  Bettors got almost 4 to 1 on their money if they took the Chicago Bears to win straight up over the Kansas City Chiefs,  Would the Bears still have won if Jamaal Charles didn’t go down with a likely season ending injury?  Who knows.  But Jamaal Charles IS WAS the Chiefs’ only offensive weapon, so this is a big hit to the team.  I can’t imagine what it’s like to tear an ACL, and be sidelined watching your team play, after you have dedicated you mind and body to the game.  So selfishly, Charles’ going down is a bad outlook for my betting strategy.  The Chiefs had been favored with him in the backfield, and I had been making money on the Chiefs being overvalued.  But going forward, I feel that the Chiefs will be valued appropriately, so there won’t be money to make on taking the other side.

Almost Nailed It

The Broncos aren’t that good.  They keep pulling out wins with their defense.  They don’t have an offense.  Peyton Manning, although still one of the great quarterbacks, is working with diminished athleticism.  The Broncos defense bailed them out and won the game on a Chris Harris, Jr. pick-6.  I say almost every week that the defense bailing out the Broncos is unsustainable, but every week I get some religion.  I will continue to take the other side of the Broncos, and I hope their value continues to increase.  Because I feel that they are overvalued, and they are due for a huge “upset” loss.  The Raiders on the other hand…I don’t know, but there is something about them that makes me believe that they aren’t playing to their potential, and will blow it up soon.  But they better do something quick, because the Broncos are extending the divisional lead on them real fast.

The Atlanta Falcons are unstoppable at home, and the Washington R*****s are terrible.  So the Matt Ryan to Julio Jones connection hasn’t been there the past two weeks.  But the Falcons are playing like the Falcons of 1998 when they rode Jamaal Anderson to the Super Bowl.  The 2015 version of Jamal Anderson is a stud running back named Devonta Freeman who had 153 yards on the ground with a touchdown.  It wasn’t a convincing win, and the Falcons didn’t cover.  But they won straight up, and confirms that they can win when they need to and have started the season 5-0.  The R*****s are still terrible.

If you watched the Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers game and couldn’t see the score at the bottom of the screen, you would have no idea who won.  Actually, based on Blake Bortles coming into his own as a quarterback, you may have though the Jaguars won.  But the Bucs ground game with Doug Martin running for 123 yards and 3 touchdowns, as well as the Bucs defense finally gave the Bucs a Win.  Jameis Winston didn’t play great, but he didn’t make any major mistakes this week to cost them the game.  The Bucs are putting together team wins, and not relying on their future in Winston.  They will be interesting to watch going forward.  As will Blake Bortles who may be turning into a real quarterback.  And now that Julius Thomas is back and healthy, watch out for the Jags.

Blew It

I have been saying all season that the Eagles are terrible.  The famous Chip Kelly offense isn’t working in the NFL.  Sam Bradford is throwing Red Zone picks.  I said in my Week 5 preview that the Rob Ryan defense only needs to contain DeMarco Murray who has been whining because nobody let’s him play with the ball.  The Saints didn’t do a good enough job of containing Murray who ran for 83 yards and touchdown, while getting involved in the passing game for another 37 yards.  Then the Eagles defense won the game by picking off Drew Brees once, causing Brees to fumble twice, and getting another fumble recovery off the Saints’ tight end Michael Hoomanawanui.  Hopefully this win against the Saints increases the Eagles’ value going forward.  Because they are still terrible and I’m still going to take the other side of the action for some serious value.  I just have no idea what is happening with the Saints this year, and will probably stay away from their games.

---

Joel’s Week 5 NFL bet picks review

Starting Bankroll: $3,835

Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) over Cleveland Browns for $110.  Actual score: Browns 33, Ravens 30 (Loss)

Chicago Bears (+10) over Kansas City Chiefs for $110.  Actual score: Bears 18, Chiefs 17 (Win)

New England Patriots (-8.5) over Dallas Cowboys for $220.  Actual score: Patriots 30, Cowboys 6 (Win)

Pittsburgh Steelers +160 over San Diego Chargers for $100.  Actual score: Steelers 24, Chargers 20 (Win)

Total Bets: $540

Total Win: $890

Week 4 Net: $350 Win

2015 Total thru Week 4: $4,315 ($315)