Mike’s Picks

Starting Bankroll: $4,325

What a terrible Week 16 I had.  I only bet two games, and I lost both games.  But I went against my strategy of making consistent bet amounts.  Unfortunately, I bet big, so I introduced the scary element of volatility.  I should have stuck to my $100 to $200 bets, and I wouldn’t have taken the major hit to my bankroll.

This is the last week of regular season.  Some games matter, and some don’t.  That makes this year difficult.  How will teams play when they are fighting for a playoff spot?  How will teams play when they have nothing to play for?  How will playoff teams play – will the play for seeding or rest players for the playoffs?  Mortals like us don’t have those answers, so this week is true gambling.  So I took a conservative look at the games, and only betting on games that matter.

New York Jets (-3) over Buffalo Bills for $200

Rex Ryan is playing his former boss in the New York Jets. Rex Ryan finds a way to use certain match ups as significant motivation. Think about his love-fest with playin the New England Patriots. Despite the focus on those games, Rex Ryan always loses.  He’s going to be motivated today. He wants to prove something to the jets fans. He wants to prove something to the city of buffalo. He ran his mouth since the day he took over as head coach and once again he looks like an idiot. And the bills run into a hot New York Jets team that is playing to get at least one more game on their schedule for next week. The jets have legitimate motivation that will destroy Rex Ryan’s personal and selfish motivation. Minus 3. Done

Houston Texans (-6.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars for $200

The Houston Texans are kind of schizophrenic. They play hot…they get destroyed. Well, they’re playing for a playoff spot and the Jacksonville Jaguars are playing for personal statistics. But the Jaguars are just bad, so this will be the game that the Texans play hot. And we’re getting them for less than a touchdown.

Washington Redskins (ML +165) over Dallas Cowboys for $200

Ok, so Washington already locked up the NFC East . But ever since the Philadelphia Eagles injured Tony Romo, the Dallas Cowboys have been a football team in name only. It’s unbelievable that the Cowboys are favored.  So getting positive value against them is easy money.