Mike’s Picks

Starting Bankroll: $4,760

There are two ways to be in the black when betting sports:

1. Make bets that you are confident that you can pick the winner.
2. Don’t make bets when you are not confident you can pick the winner.

These are the two rules I follow, and I am in the black heading into Week 13.  So it’s working out for me.  I generally feel good about 5-6 games per week, with a few deviations from that number.  But Week 13 is different.  There are a lot of games that I’m just staying away from.

The Atlanta Falcons were hot, and now I don’t know how they’re losing.  They’re playing a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that I don’t know how they’re winning.  I would take the team that had value on one side, but the game is just about a Pick ’em.  There is value in the New Orleans Saints beating the Carolina Panthers, but I don’t know how the Saints are losing, or how the Panthers are winning.  I was close to taking the Saints, but I’ve been burned by them so many times this year.  I have been on the Cincinnati Bengals bandwagon just about all season, but giving 9 points to the Cleveland Browns is pretty steep, especially since they have had some close games.  Or is Brock Osweiller for real?  I’m not going to touch that game with no value.  How do the Kansas City Chiefs keep winning?  Favored by 3 against the Oakland Raiders is nothing I want a piece of.

So you can see how a lot of the Week 13 games are difficult to call.  It’s just not a high volume week.  On the other hand, the results of this week will definitely answer some questions so we’ll be back to the usual amount of games that I bet on next week.

Houston Texans (ML +160) over Buffalo Bills for $100

Lock of the Week

The Houston Texans defense is starting to come alive.  The Buffalo Bills have won a few games, but what dimensions of the game are they really good at?  They haven’t won games, they have just managed to win some games.  Is Stephon Gilmore or Ronald Darby really going to shut down DeAndre Hopkins?  No way!  Hopkins could go for 150 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Bill secondary.  And LeSean McCoy will not make past Vince Wilfork unless he gets Shady and with his east/west moves.  But then he runs into JJ Watt.  I don’t know how the Bills are favored in this game, but I am very glad that they are.

Minnesota Vikings (ML +105) over Seattle Seahawks for $100

No Jimmy Graham.  No Marshawn Lynch.  Seattle Seahawks are in trouble.  Ok, Russell Wilson had a career game against the Pittsburg Steelers in Week 12, and the Steelers defense is pretty solid.  But one week does not a season make.  And his missing some pretty important tools from his tool belt.  Nobody is going to argue that the Vikings are much of a threat in the passing game.  But the Seahawks secondary is not the same since (I say it almost every week) Dan Quinn left as their defensive coordinator to become the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons.  So with Adrian Peterson forcing the running game, that will give Teddy Bridgewater some looks down field.  The Vikings are 8-3 somehow.  And that somehow is centered around Adrian Peterson.  This is going to be a fun game to watch, and watching Richard Sherman cry will be the icing on the Vikings’ victory cake.

Arizona Cardinals (-4.5) over St. Louis Rams for $110

The Arizona Cardinals have, arguably, the most high powered offense in the league.  And they are playing the St. Louis Rams.  Is that enough?  Or should I continue?  Nah, except to say that the one thing that Chip Kelly did get right in the offseason was to dump Nick Foles.  Or maybe Nick Foles is just cursed by being on the Rams.  Either way, it’s not a good combo, and the Cardinals are going to win by 20.  Giving 4.5 points?  Easy money.

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Joel’s Picks

Cincinnati Bengals (-8) over Cleveland Browns for $110

Andy Dalton > Austin Davis

Miami Dolphins (-4) over Baltimore Ravens for $110

Baltimore is too banged up

Arizona Cardinals (-4.5) over St. Louis Rams for $220

There should be a 1 in front of the 4 in the spread

Atlanta Falcons (-1) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers for $110

Atlanta needs this desperately

San Diego Chargers (+200) over Denver Broncos for $100

San Diego seems to always hand Denver a loss on the season.  Playing in San Diego, Denver might look past them after their big win last week.

New England Patriots (-8) over Philadelphia Eagles for $220

I can’t quit the Pats.  The Eagles are terrible, the Pats are mad.  New England by 30.