Mike’s Week 4 NFL bet picks review

Jacksonville Jaguars (+375) over Indianapolis Colts for $100. Actual score: Colts 16, Jaguars 13

Atlanta Falcons (-6) over Houston Texans for $110.  Actual score: Falcons 48, Texans 21

Buffalo Bills (-5) over New York Giants for $110.  Actual score: Giants 24, Bills 10

Oakland Raiders (-3) over Chicago Bears for $110.  Actual score: Bears 22, Raiders 20

Washington Redskins (+145) over Philadelphia Eagles for $100.  Actual score: Redskins 23, Eagles 20

Cincinnati Bengals (-4) over Kansas City Chiefs for $110.  Actual score: Bengals 36, Chiefs 21

Minnesota Vikings (+250) over Denver Broncos for $100.  Actual score: Broncos 23, Vikings 20

Total Bets: $740

Total Win: $665

Week 4 Net: $75 loss

2015 Total thru Week 4: $3,890 (-$110)

Nailed It

As my lock of the week, the Atlanta Falcons crushed the Houston Texans.  However, they did it on the ground as opposed through the air.  The Falcons scored 48 points, but only 7 was by a Matt Ryan pass.  And Julio Jones was a non-impact player.  He was nursing an injury, and when you jump ahead quick on DeVonta Freeman’s 3 touchdowns, you don’t need to risk further injuring arguably the best wide receiver in the league.

In my Week 4 predictions, I wrote the following about the Jacksonville Jaguar chances against the Indianapolis Colts:  “Am I banking on the Jaguars to win this game?  Not really, but I also don’t think they’re 4 to 1 underdogs, so there is great expected value in this matchup, even if it is in Indianapolis.”  I nailed it that the Jags would make it a closer game, and I was also looking for some great expected value in the money line at +375.  However, I should have hedged this bet with a straight bet against the spread too, which would have made my money line bet free.  The Colts won – good.  That means that they are going to be overvalued in future weeks.  The Colts are not looking good this year.  I don’t know what happened, I just know that they can’t put a solid game together and get a convincing win.

I can’t stop saying it, but the Washington Redskins are terrible, and the Philadelphia Eagles are terrible.  It just rolls off the lips so easy, probably because it’s true.  This was a great value bet.  Two terrible teams that are indistinguishable, and there is positive money to be made?  Easy call.  That game was a coin flip, and so taking the money side was smart.  Coach Philbin was fired from the Miami Dolphins after Week 4.  How much longer is Chip Kelly going to be in Philadelphia?  He wholesaled the Eagles in the off-season, so then Howie Roseman needs to decide whether to leave Chip in to try to fix the mess he created, or dump him to have someone else try to figure out what to do with the steaming pile of crap that fertilizes that field at Lincoln Financial Field 7 more times this year.

The 2015 Cincinnati Bengals are the real deal.  Andy Dalton is finally playing up to his expectations.  In my Week 4 predictions, I said that the Kansas City Chiefs can’t close out games.  That had been true until the game against the Bengals, when they couldn’t even get a game started.  Jamaal Charles is still a freak of nature, and the only reason Andy Reid still has a job.  Jamaal almost single handedly brought the Chiefs within field goal range most possessions, but then the Chiefs couldn’t manage any touchdowns, except in garbage time.  Trading 7’s for 3’s will not win many games in the NFL.  But Cairo Santos had fun kicking 7 field goals, but they’re worthless without a Win.

Almost Nailed It

The Chicago Bears beat the Oakland Raiders.  At the same time, the Raiders continued to prove that they are a little bit better than everyone expected them to be (did you see that perfectly placed 26 yard touchdown pass between the safety and cornerback from Derek Carr to Amari Cooper – they are going to be a great combo to watch), and the Bears can’t score like they used to.  I made my prediction when I thought that Jay Cutler would be out with an injury, and Jimmy Clausen would be starting at quarterback.  Well, Cutler was in, and he did just enough for the Bears to pull this one out.

The Denver Broncos beat the Minnesota Vikings.  At the same time, the Vikings continued to prove that they are a little bit better than everyone expected them to be, and the Broncos can’t score like they used to.  23 Denver Broncos points.  There is still a media love-fest for Peyton Manning.  The Broncos are 4-0, and Manning is being regarded as an unselfish player for handing the ball off to CJ Anderson and RonnieHillman, but saving the day by throwing 1 yard touchdown passes when they fail to run it in.  I don’t get it.  Scoring 23 points any year before this season would have been reason to worry and ask what went wrong.  Congrats to the Broncos for beating the Vikings.  Your betting value is going to go up, and I’m going to continue to bet the other side.  I knew they shouldn’t have been 2.5 to 1 favorites last week, but I should have also bet the Vikings on the spread as well to make the money line bet a free bet.

Blew It

Even after yesterday’s win against the Buffalo Bills, I am still not convinced that the New York Giants are not terrible.  It’s just that the Bills are a little more terrible.  You can’t win a game when you get flagged 17 times for 135 yards!  You’re killing any offensive momentum, and giving too many chances to a weaker team.  The Bills looked good to start the season, with an opening day win against the Indianapolis Colts.  But we have learned that the Colts are not the same team we expected them to be.  Let’s get the focus back on the Giants.  I picked them to lose on Sunday because they are terrible.  They won.  I’m owning up to it.  That just means their stock is going to rise in other bettors minds, and I am going to continue to bet the other side of the Giants where there is going to be some huge value.

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Joel’s Week 4 NFL bet picks review

Baltimore Ravens (-3) over Pittsburgh Steelers for $110. Actual score: Ravens 23, Steelers 20 (PUSH)

Denver Broncos (-6.5) over Minnesota Vikings for $110. Actual score: Broncos 23, Vikings 20 (Loss)

New York Giants (+5) over Buffalo Bills for $110. Actual score: Giants 24, Bills 10 (Win)

San Diego Chargers (-7.5) over Cleveland Browns for $110. Actual score: Chargers 30, Browns 27 (Loss)

Total Bets: $440

Total Win: $320

Week 3 Net: $120 loss

2015 Total thru Week 3: $3,835 (-$165)