Mike’s Week 3 NFL bet picks review
Pittsburg Steelers (-1) over St. Louis Rams for $110. Actual score: Steelers 12, Rams 6 (Win)
Cincinnati Bengals (+125) over Baltimore Ravens for $100. Actual score: Bengals 28, Ravens 24 (Win)
Oakland Raiders (+165) over Cleveland Browns for $100. Actual score: Raiders 27, Browns 20 (Win)
Washington Redskins (+160) over New York Giants for $100. Actual score: Giants 32, Redskins 21 (Loss)
New York Jets (-2.5) over Philadelphia Eagles for $110. Actual score: Eagles 24, Jets 17 (Loss)
Total Bets: $520
Total Win: $700
Week 3 Net: $180 win
2015 Total thru Week 3: $3,965 (-$35)
The Steelers over the Rams was my lock of the weak, and I nailed it despite Ben Roethlisberger getting injured in the third quarter. Why was it my lock of the week? Half because of the Steelers being tough this year, and half because the Rams aren’t the team they were sold as. So Big Ben goes down, and that’s not enough for the Rams. The Rams simply can’t score. Nick Foles IS the Nick Foles that Philadelphia Eagles fans were happy to let leave. Is Nick Foles a worse option for QB than Sam Bradford? That’s debatable, but he’s not working out for the Rams.
Losing Roethlisberger definitely contained the Steelers offense, giving the Rams a chance. However, Le’Veon Bell’s return was as expected, as he had 132 all purpose yards and 1 touchdown. Nailed it.
Not knowing what the prognosis is on Ben, I’m probably going to stay away from any action on the Steelers. And I’m a seller on the Rams. The Rams have proven that Week 1 was a fluke.
The Bengals over the Ravens was a great value bet. And the Ravens are not the Super Bowl winning team of 2013. Coach Jim Harbaugh made a good move getting out of San Fransisco when he saw the writing on the wall. It’s too bad his brother, Coach John Harbaugh, can’t bring his Ravens team to a win.
The Bengals aren’t great, but they were good enough for this value bet. Andy Dalton is a good solid quarterback, and he threw for 383 yards and 3 touchdowns on Sunday. He’s not going to beat great teams, but he’ll take out weak teams like the Baltimore Ravens. Ray Lewis was great, but one linebacker does not make a team. Just look at JJ Watt in Houston. Losing Ed Reed to retirement doesn’t help either. But thank you Bengals for your value.
I’m taking the Bengals when there’s value, and a seller on the Ravens. Fortunately, the lines are likely to still to favor the Ravens because of the Ravens from the past few years…not the Ravens of 2015.
The Browns suck. The Raiders aren’t great, but the Browns suck. Methinks the Raiders might be the sleeper, and their 13 years of rebuilding are starting to take shape. Derek Carr? Is he becoming a real NFL quarterback? I don’t know. He did throw for a respectable 314 yards and 2 touchdowns. But I do know that the Raiders are undervalued, and there might be some value in them going forward. Obviously the Browns are way overvalued, so there is good money in taking the other side of their games going forward.
Almost Nailed It
Picking the Titans over the Colts? Yup, blew this one. Kind of, because I predicted this game as a coin toss, and took the money side of the game. What was the outcome? A coin toss – so I nailed that.
The Titans weren’t great, but neither were the Colts. What was the score? Was that a convincing Colts win? No, so I am a Colts seller, because I guarantee they’ll be favored next week against Jacksonville Jaguars, and there will be serious value on the other side.
The best thing I can say about the Giants beating Washington on Thursday night is that the Giants are going to be overvalued going forward. The Giants are still terrible. The only way Eli Manning has been successful during his entire career is by having receivers who can make circus catches. From David Tyree in Super Bowl XLII in 2008, to Odell Beckham, Jr. every week. The Giants beat the Redskins by 11 points, but it was so much closer than that. So they almost won Weeks 1 and 2, and beat the Redskins in Week 3, but if you watched the games, they Giants just aren’t good.
The Eagles won, but that doesn’t change the fact that the Eagle suck. The Eagles won that game on defense and special teams. An 89 yard punt return by Daren Sproles, 3 interceptions, a 53 yard field goal, and an on-side kick recovery. Plus the Jets were missing their top running back, Chris Ivory, with a quad injury, and their top receiver, Eric Decker, with a sprained knee. Shame on me for picking the Jets. There is no doubt that defense is important to win games. But it’s not good when the defense is the only source of points. But that’s what happens in Philadelphia. The Eagles offense can’t score.
But the Jets proved that they aren’t the team they started out as. They beat the Cleveland Browns in Week 1, and the Indianapolis Colts in Week 2. Both those teams are starting slow, so maybe they were gimme wins for the Jets.
I’m a seller on both the Jets and the Eagles. But I’m glad the Eagles won, because that’s going to increase their value in future weeks, where there isn’t any.
Joel’s Week 2 NFL bet picks review
Total Bankroll: $3,550
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) over St. Louis Rams for $220. Actual score: Steeler 12, Rams 6 (Win)
New England (-13.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars for $110. Actual score: Patriots 51, Jaguars 17 (Win)
Philadelphia Eagles (+115) over NY Jets for $100. Actual score: Eagles 24, Jets 17 (Win)
Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) over Tennessee Titans for $110. Actual score: Colts 35, Titans 33 (Loss)
Atlanta Falcons (-2) over Dallas Cowboys for $110. Actual score: Falcons 39, Cowboys 28 (Win)
Total Bets: $650
Total Win: $1055
Week 3 Net: $405 win
2015 Total thru Week 3: $3,955 (-$45)