After a less than stellar betting in Week 1, we at least got to see what a lot of teams are made of. Week 1 gave us a lot of information, and there are definitely some opportunities in the lines out there.
Here are Mike’s Week 2 NFL Bets:
Kansas City Chiefs (-3 -120) over Denver Broncos for $120
Kansas City showed that they are the real deal with the win over the Houston Texans last week. Alex Smith is more of player than just a game manager now. It helps to have the addition of Jeremy Maclin, and Jamaal Charles is Jamaal Charles.
It’s still too early in the season to say it. But everyone got burned last year in Week 5 when the New England Patriots were just 2-2 by suggesting that Tom Brady was done. It has only been one game this year, unless you want to count last December, but is Peyton Manning losing a step in his game? The Broncos pulled out a win in Week 1, but that was thanks to an Aqib Talib pick-6. As one of the best cornerbacks in the league, that is going to happen, but not every week to save the Broncos.
Back to Manning – he threw for 175 yards on 24 of 40 passing with an interception and no touchdowns. That is not a Peyton Manning line, but he does get the win. Brian Hoyer got pulled for Ryan Mallet in Houston and had a better passer rating and QBR than Manning, but he doesn’t have the same name recognition as Peyton.
The spread says it’s only a field goal game for the Chiefs, and they’re in Kansas City. Easy money.
Pittsburg Steelers (-5.5) over San Francisco 49ers for $110
Sure the Steeler lost last week and they’re favored, but they lost to the New England Patriots. And sure the 49ers won last week and they’re the underdogs, but they beat the Minnesota Vikings. It’s almost like those games don’t count.
This game is in Pittsburg and it’s less than 2 field goals. The Niners have to travel across the country and play a 1pm local game, but it’s going to feel like 10am to them.
One more game without Le’Veon Bell, and DeAngelo Williams has one more game to prove that he should be the featured back. In reality, no matter how well Williams does this Sunday, he’s still going to be Bell’s backup. And Big Ben Roethlisberger is playing like Big Ben does.
Colin Kaepernick was as unimpressive in Week 1 as I predicted last week. And Carlos Hyde had more yards on the ground than Colin had in the air. There is no way that the Mike Tomlin’s defense lets Hyde get half of the 168 yards he got against the Vikings, so Kaepernick is going to have to step up.
5.5 points is easy money. Steelers will win this easily by at least 10.
Tennessee Titans (PK) over Cleveland Browns for $110
Lock of the week
Was I the only one who saw either of those teams play last week?
Sure Tennessee was playing against an unknown Jameis Winston. But they had their own unknown in Marcus Mariota! And Mariota showed that he is ready for the NFL by throwing 4 touchdowns in his first game, on the road I might add.
And Cleveland lost to the New York Jets? The Jets aren’t the same Jets as they were under Rex Ryan, but they’re still the Jets, and they’re still not that good. And they beat the Cleveland Browns!
Any way you slice it, there is no way the Browns should be anything but an underdog this week. They still haven’t figured out their quarterback situation, and Mariota is laughing at how long it’s taking Johnny Manziel to become an NFL quarterback.
Ok, so Tennessee was 2-14 last year and Cleveland was 7-9. But this is 2015, and QBs make or break a team. Mariota makes Tennessee and the Manziel/Hoyer combo is breaking Cleveland.
St. Louis Rams (-3.5) over Washington Redskins for $110
Again, was I the only one who watched any games last week. It pains me to take a 3.5 point spread, but St. Louis really is that much better than Washington.
St. Louis beat the 2014 NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks. Seattle would have been the Super Bowl champions, except they got Pete Carroll’ed by Malcom Butler – I said it, because Marshawn Lynch won’t.
A lot of people in Philadelphia were Nick Foles haters last year, and were happy to see him leave. Only because he never took them to the playoffs. But then again, he never played a full season while he was in Philly. Unfortunately for St. Louis, Nick Foles doesn’t have the quality of targets he had in Philly, but he still spreads the love like he was able to in Philly.
But this pick is based almost solely because of Washington. Washington is not going to win more than 4 games this year, and the Rams are not going to be one of those wins.
Atlanta Falcons (+120) over New York Giants for $100
2015 is Eli Manning’s 12th year as an NFL quarterback, and he still doesn’t know how to manage a clock in a 2 minute drill. The Giants’ premier defensive end from the past 2 seasons is recovering from a fireworks accident making it so the highest he can count is 8. The head coach, Tom Coughlin, calls in a pass at the end of the game when the clock is running down giving the Dallas Cowboys life.
That’s a recipe for a sh*t sandwich, and I’m not buying.
The Atlanta Falcons on the other hand are playing almost like the Falcons from 2012. Their new head coach, Dan Quinn, brought some of his defensive smarts from Seattle. The Falcons shut down the Philadelphia Eagles in the first half of the game in Week 1, and then made fourth quarter stops when they needed them. There was a quarter and a half where the Falcons’ defense were doing suicide sprints and needed oxygen after each Eagles score, but they pulled it together when they needed to.
Matt Ryan was Matt Ryan, Julio Jones was Julio Jones, and Tevin Coleman proved he was a great pickup in the draft running for 80 yards in Week 1. Week 2 is good timing for the Falcons to head up north to East Rutherford before the weather gets too bad for the team that relishes the dome.
Dallas Cowboys (+190) over Philadelphia Eagles for $100
Anybody who isn’t excited to see this rivalry needs to get their head checked. Few teams hate each other more than the Dallas Cowboys and the Philadelphia Eagles. Any fan wearing a Romo jersey into Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia better be bringing extra security. I’m just sayin…
No DeMarco Murry in Dallas? No problem. But he is a problem in Philadelphia, because he can’t find a gap. He was only effective in Week 1 when he caught the second pass of his life in the flat! It’s only time before he goes IK Enemkpali on Ryan Matthews just so he can get more touches.
Dallas only got to Eli Manning 3 times in Week 1 for 1 sack. The Eagles better protect Sam Bradford just as well, because Bradford has a glass jaw. Meanwhile, Tony Romo plays with broken ribs, and Philly is going to try to make sure that he’s playing with one by the start of the second half this Sunday.
It’s going to be a brawl. It’s going to be ugly. It’s going to be a close game. It could go either way. But the value is definitely on the Cowboys.
San Francisco 49ers (+6) over Pittsburgh Steelers for $100
The 49ers are coming off a short week, playing the late game on Monday night, then get to travel across the country to play against Pittsburgh, who got to open the season on Thursday night and will be well rested. But this is early in the season, and fatigue doesn’t come in to play as much as it will in December. The first thing you should have noticed if you watched the Niners on Monday night is that their demise has been exaggerated. While they had one of the worst off seasons of all time, their lineup is still loaded with talent, as evidence by the 20-3 win over Minnesota, holding Adrian Peterson to a lowly 31 yards in his return. The combination of Colin Kaepernick and Carlos Hyde is formidable and it showed. Combine the fact that the football world is undervaluing San Fran with the Steelers missing Le’Veon Bell and I like the Niners to at least keep it competitive. 6 points is too high for me to like the Steelers, so I’m going with San Francisco.
Detroit Lions (+2.5) over Minnesota for $200
I watched a lot of Teddy Bridgewater in college and was impressed. I’ve watched him in the pros last season and last week and have been very underwhelmed. Detroit doesn’t have the same kind of defense as years prior as evidence from the second half display Philip Rivers put on last week, but Bridgewater is not Rivers. The Lions defense will do just enough to let their high powered offense do the heavy lifting. I would have picked Detroit if they were the favorites, but will jump all over this pick as the underdog.
New England Patriots (-1) over Buffalo Bills for $100
As impressive as the Bills victory over the Colts in week 1 was, I think we are getting a little ahead of ourselves. The Patriots are still the cream of the AFC East crop with the Tom Brady to Rob Gronkowski connection in addition to LeGarrette Blunt returning to the backfield. Sure, they are on the road, but I’m not betting against Brady right now. I have a feeling he is going to play with a chip on his shoulder this year following Deflategate and will torch Rex Ryan’s defense this week.
Baltimore Ravens (-6) at Oakland Raiders for $200
Oakland is bad. Really bad, especially if Derek Carr is not healthy. The Ravens defense is excellent as they kept Peyton Manning and the Bronco offense out of the end zone last week. The Raiders are not nearly as potent on offense as Denver, and a single touchdown from Joe Flacco and crew might be enough to cover. Flacco was held in check last week, but this week, look for Baltimore to break out the big plays and put up a big score in Oakland. I love the Ravens this week and the fact it is on the West Coast instead of Baltimore is the only reason the line isn’t double digits.