MLB All-Star Game week. Short week. Let’s analyze with an analogy:
Casinos want some people to win. People go to casinos for the excitement. For the chance to win a big jackpot.
If people thought there was no chance of winning, casinos would be completely empty.
Casinos win over the long run. Math is on their side. If an individual person plays a lot over the long term, they will ultimately lose. However, if a gambler goes in to the casino, and makes just a couple of big bets, there is almost a 50/50 chance they actually win (this works for games like blackjack and roulette, but in a slightly different way for slots).
What does this have to do with Team OTBR on CBS Sports Fantasy Baseball? We got screwed by the short week. Over a full week, we beat the bronxbombers 8 out of 10 times or better. But on the short week, it was almost a 50/50 chance we lose. Not only did we lose, but we got crushed. The bronxbomers (our opponent last week) was the drunk guy who walked up to the blackjack table with a $5000, made 5 $1000 dollar bets, and got lucky enough to win 4 of them to walk out with an extra $3000 for bottle service at XS. If he had made 50 $100 bets, the casino would have beat him, but he won because he got lucky on just a few big bets. Luck doesn’t win out in the long run…math wins.
So what do we do now? One bad week isn’t enough for us to shut down the casino, and retire to some land in Branson, MO that we bought from Ponch. No, we suck it up and move on, because the casino always wins.
Fortunately, everyone we’re tied with in our division also lost. So we’re still tied for 2nd with 3 other teams. But Basher extended their lead on all of us, so every week is important for us to be one of the top two teams in the division to make the playoffs.
This week XoloPound already has a lot of 2 start pitchers. Not sure if there are many decent ones left. Also, thanks to the freakish rain yesterday, SoCal games got washed out. The Sox/Angels are playing 2 on Monday, so the position players could get in 8 games this week.
We pulled Justin Verlander, because he’s been terrible and put in Gio Gonzalez who has 2 starts (so does Hector Santiago thanks to the rain out), and put Jordan Zimmerman back in. We have good starters, but took a shot that John Lackey would have the weakest of the 1 start guys. We’ll leave the hitters the same due mainly to our guys on the DL. Hopefully the Colorado infield we are sporting will do wonders with all home games this week! Fingers crossed!
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