NL West Preview and Predictions

Last season saw a bit of both worlds in the NL West as the Dodgers had the highest payroll in the league and parlayed that into 94 wins and a divisional title and the San Francisco Giants squeaked into the playoffs as the Wild Card, then rode Madison Bumgarner’s left arm to their third World Series title in the last five season. Conversely, they also are the division that held the two worst records in all of baseball in the Rockies and Diamondbacks. So how will it all shake out in 2015? Let’s take a look ahead with some previews and predictions out west.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers – It would be silly to pick anyone but the Dodgers to win the West. Over the course of 162 games, a team with a roster this deep will usually emerge on top, but that doesn’t necessarily translate into postseason success as we saw last year when the Cardinals bounced the Dodgers in the first round of the playoffs. They added Jimmy Rollins and traded away Matt Kemp, overhauled the back end of their starting rotation and attempted to address the bullpen, which was their biggest weakness in 2014. But perhaps their best pick-up in the offseason was acquiring ex-Rays GM Andrew Friedman who did wonders in Tampa and will now have roughly $150 million more to play with.

Possible lineup

1. Jimmy Rollins, SS
2. Carl Crawford, LF
3. Yasiel Puig, RF
4. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
5. Howie Kendrick, 2B
6. Juan Uribe, 3B
7. Yasmani Grandal, C
8. Joc Pederson, CF

Possible Rotation

1. Clayton Kershaw, LHP
2. Zack Greinke, RHP
3. Hyun-Jin Ryu, LHP
4. Brandon McCarthy, RHP
5. Brett Anderson, LHP

Bullpen

Closer – Kenley Jansen RHP

Set up – Joel Peralta RHP, J.P. Howell LHP

The Dodgers lineup doesn’t boast a true leadoff hitter as Rollins is more suited for the 2 or 3 spot, but they should still produce enough runs for that starting rotation. Pederson gets the starting nod over “play me or trade me” Andre Ethier and Joc gets a chance to prove why he had been near the top of all prospect rankings the last few years. Puig is a superstar with the potential to be legendary if he can learn the fundamentals to the game and be a team player. The Dodgers will have a pretty solid bench and an extremely deep farm system should injuries arise. Kershaw and Greinke form the best 1-2 punch in the league for starters and Ryu is as good as any #3 starter. After that, they may be worried about durability. McCarthy has had injury problems, but looks like the Iron Man compared to Brett Anderson. If they can stay healthy, it will be one of the strongest rotations in the league, if not, they may take a chance on super-prospects Julio Urias or Zach Lee. But I’m counting down the day before GM Friedman packages one of those guys along with a few other pieces to bring Cole Hammels to LA. And that rotation, will be one to fear in a playoff series.

Prediction – 95 – 67, 1^st in NL West

Bold Prediction – Clayton Kershaw will not win his 4^th Cy Young award and his ERA will skyrocket to somewhere above two.

(Photo Courtesy of Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)

2. San Francisco Giants – Even year success or odd year curse? Every other year, fans of the Giants get to watch a championship parade go down Market Street, but the next season is filled with disappointment (or as disappointed as you can be coming off a championship). They lost Pablo Sandoval and Michael Morse, while welcoming Casey McGehee and Nori Aoki. Can they break the odd year curse? They received a potential gift of inspiration from the Kung Fu Panda when he said he never planned on resigning with the Giants and it was easy to leave San Francisco because he only like 2 people: manager Bruce Bochy and outfielder Hunter Pence. The Giants haven’t had a fire like that lit under them since their title run began and might be able to use that as motivation for another playoff run.

Possible Lineup

1. Angel Pagan, CF
2. Joe Panik, 2B
3. Buster Posey, C
4. Hunter Pence, RF
5. Brandon Belt, 1B
6. Casey McGehee, 3B
7. Brandon Crawford, SS
8. Nori Aoki, LF

Possible Rotation

1. Madison Bumgarner
2. Matt Cain
3. Tim Hudson
4. Jake Peavy
5. Tim Lincecum

Bullpen

Closer – Santiago Casilla RHP

Set up – Sergio Romo RHP, Jeremy Affelt LHP

With Hunter Pence injured for the first part of the season, there will be some lineup adjustments, as Gregor Blanco will be filling in at the other corner outfield spot. Lack of power will be an issue for the Giants after losing Sandoval and Morse who supplied a large chuck of their home runs last season. Can they adjust to a more speed and fundamental based offense or will they struggle to find runs? The most important player for the lineup is probably not the face of the MLB, Buster Posey, but leadoff hitter Angel Pagan. Since acquiring him before the championship 2012 season, the Giants play at a 92 wins per season pace with him in the lineup, but without him, that number drops all the way down to 72. That is quite a difference and he is one player they cannot afford to lose for extended periods of time. The rotation is full of question marks. Bumgarner was incredible in the playoffs, but pitched 270 innings, so how will his arm hold up this year? Matt Cain is coming off major elbow surgery. Will his season look more like 2012 or 2014? Tim Hudson and Jake Peavy have been around the block, so how much do they have left in the tank? Bruce Bochy announced Tim Lincecum would return to the rotation despite struggles in recent year. He has looked good in spring training, but can that carry over to the regular season? The bullpen has been a strength these last years and should be again this season. Their farm system is weak and very young, so don’t bank on an impact trade at the deadline or miracle call up like last year gem in second baseman Joe Panik.

Prediction – 90 – 72, 2^nd in NL West, Wildcard berth

Bold Prediction – Buster Posey, Brandon Belt and top prospect Andrew Susac split time between catcher and first base, each of them finishing the season with 20+ home runs.

(Photo Courtesy of Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

3. San Diego Padres – The team that made the most noise this offseason, might just challenge for their first postseason berth since 2006 when Bruce Bochy was still their manager. Their lineup looks nothing like it did last year (did I just hear all of San Diego sigh in relief?) and the rotation resembles something that a contender would have. Will the massive changes turn their fortunes or will it be more of the same?

Possible Lineup

1. Wil Myers, CF
2. Will Middlebrooks, 3B
3. Matt Kemp, RF
4. Justin Upton, LF
5. Yonder Alonso, 1B
6. Derek Norris, C
7. Jedd Gyorko, 2B
8. Alexi Amarista, SS

Possible Rotation

1. James Shields, RHP
2. Andrew Cashner, RHP
3. Ian Kennedy, RHP
4. Tyson Ross, RHP
5. Odrisamer Despaigne, RHP

Bullpen

Closer – Joaquin Benoit, RHP

Set Up – Kevin Quackenbush, RHP, Dale Thayer RHP

Questions galore in San Diego. They finally added some power in Kemp and Upton, but can Kemp stay healthy and will it even matter in the pitchers paradise of Petco Park? The lineup is almost entirely right handed which will make matchups a lot easier to deal with if you are the opposing manager. Thankfully, Kemp is moved out of CF to hide his deteriorating defense, but the overall team defense could be downright awful. The Padres are banking on all these “ifs” going their way, but it might turn out badly if even some go the wrong way. The rotation is a little more settled, even if they lack a left-handed starter. Shields was a great pick up and will help eat innings and can even match up against other teams top starters. Cashner and Ross have tremendous talent and can be top-of-the-rotation type guys if they can put it all together. They even have depth if one or more starters falter with Brandon Morrow and always-injured Josh Johnson waiting in the wings. The ‘pen is solid, but not spectacular and the bench is surprisingly decent. They should contend for a wild card spot this year and might be setting themselves up for long-term success.

Prediction – 86-76, 3^rd in NL West

Bold Prediction – With so many new players, they go through many ups and downs and have streaks of 10 wins and 10 losses in a row at some point during the season.

4. Arizona Diamondbacks – The D’Backs finished 2014 with the worst record in baseball, so nowhere to go but up, right? Injuries did them in with Paul Goldschmidt (no relation…at least I don’t think so…) and Mark Trumbo missing significant time. They added highly touted Cuban prospect Yasmany Tomas, who should figure into the mix right away at third base and outfield. The rotation remains weak, even with newly acquired Jeremy Hellickson penciled into the #1 spot.

Possible Lineup

1. J. Pollock, CF
2. David Peralta, Lf
3. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B
4. Mark Trumbo, RF
5. Yasmany Tomas, 3B
6. Aaron Hill, 2B
7. Chris Owings, SS
8. Tuffy Gosewisch, C

Possible Rotation

1. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP
2. Chase Anderson, RHP
3. Josh Collmenter, RHP
4. Rubby De La Rosa, RHP
5. Allen Webster, RHP

Bullpen

Closer – Addison Reed RHP

Set up – Brad Ziegler RHP, Oliver Perez LHP

Power will not be an issue as the middle of Arizona’s lineup is as powerful as they come in the post-steroid era. I’m looking forward to seeing the other teams closer coming in and trying to throw fastballs past those three guys while protecting a 1-run lead. If they can manage to get guys on base in front of Goldschmidt/Trumbo/Tomas, they might just score enough runs to be part of the wild card discussion.   The rotation, on the other hand, is the opposite of scary. Hellickson is a nice starter, but when he is your #1 and will be match up against other teams’ #1 like Kershaw, Bumgarner, Hammels, Scherzer, etc. you are in trouble. They have depth with Patrick Corbin and Bronson Arroyo coming off Tommy John surgery and a few prospects near the major league level. The only way they will see success is if new manager Chip Hale can maneuver all these pieces together successfully. Reed is a good closer and will help the depth of the pen, but how many save opportunities will he have in the desert?

Prediction – 70 – 92, 4^th in NL West

Bold Prediction – Goldschmidt/Trumbo/Tomas each hit 25 bombs this season and the trio combine to hit 100 total.

5. Colorado Rockies – The Rockies have not finished higher than 4^th in the NL West since 2010 and I don’t expect that trend to change this year. The front office did not add any players of substance to the roster, let Michael Cuddyer walk and are putting all their eggs in the “healthy Tulo and CarGo” basket. Risky to say the least. They have a highly rated farm system, so perhaps they are already playing for 2016. Offense is never a problem at Coors Field, but getting the other team out is always a challenge.

Possible Lineup

1. Charlie Blackmon, CF
2. Carlos Gonzalez, RF
3. Troy Tulowitzki, SS
4. Justin Morneau, 1B
5. Nolan Arenado, 3B
6. Corey Dickerson, LF
7. Wilin Rosario, C
8. DJ LeMahieu, 2B

Possible Rotation

1. Jorge De La Rosa, LHP
2. Jhoulys Chacin, RHP
3. Jordan Lyles, RHP
4. Kyle Kendrick, RHP
5. Tyler Matzek, LHP

Bullpen

Closer – LaTroy Hawkins RHP

Set up – Rex Brothers LHP, Adam Ottavino RHP

Again, runs aren’t the issue. They should score plenty, even if they have minor injuries along the way. They boast a really solid lineup, even if they didn’t play in the high altitude city of Denver. I just can’t see that rotation doing anything close to competitive. I see a lot of 12-10 games in Colorado, so pad your fantasy baseball roster with Rockies hitters, but, under no circumstances, should you take a pitcher. Even De La Rosa, who I am a fan of and has had the most success at Coors since Ubaldo Jimenez dominated for a brief time. I will be very interested to see if they bring up super star in the making, Jonathan Gray at some point this year or if they wait for next season. Eddie Butler is another name to keep an eye on if/when one of the members of the rotation struggles.

Prediction – 66 – 96, Last Place

Bold Prediction – Tulo gets injured in June…wait, this is supposed to be a bold prediction, not a rational, fact and history-based prediction. Sorry about that. How about, the Rockies finally figure out that asking an injury prone player to play 162 games at SS is not a high percentage play and they rest Tulo periodically throughout the season, minimizing his time on the DL. He plays in 130 games, puts up absurd numbers as we all know he can, and is traded to New York next offseason.

(Photo Courtesy of AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)