Week 3 NFL Sport Betting Predictions
Making NFL betting predictions is starting to become more clear as the season goes on. We don’t have to rely on the useless pre-season to see how teams are playing together or what effect off-season moves have.
Who would have thought that DeMarco Murray would have 3 more rush yards than Jason Pierre-Paul has fingers after two games? Who would have thought that Ryan Fitzpatrick would have been able to lead the Jets to two straight wins? Who knew what effect Deflategate would have on Tom Brady and the New England Patriots (except me)? Who would have thought the Indianapolis Colts would be struggling for the first win in Week 3?
We like to think that things in the NFL are more clear after two weeks. But we’ll have to see how our picks do this week to see if that holds true.
Total Bankroll: $3,715
Washington Redskins (+160) over New York Giants for $100
The New York Giants are jokes. Sure the Washington Redskins are a joke too, but at least they have managed to win a game in this young season. The books are still valuing the Giants at 2014 prices. This game is a division game that is a coin toss. Even though it’s being played in East Rutherford, making it a home game for the Giants, that New Jersey / New York crowd is going to turn on Eli Manning, Tom Coughlin, and the rest of the team the first drive they don’t score. And that drive with no score is going to happen early and often. That equals no more home field advantage.
This isn’t a bet on Washington winning, it’s a bet that the Giants continue their downward spiral.
Pittsburg Steelers (-1) over St. Louis Rams for $110
Lock of the Week
The Pittsburg Steelers are 1-1 this season. They lost to the powerful New England Patriots, and beat the San Francisco 49ers who aren’t the same team from 3 years ago. Most teams in the NFL would have the same record with that schedule. But the Steelers have looked good.
Not only that, but Le’Veon Bell is back from this suspension this week. He was a stud last year, he’s young, and he’s fresh. He is going to be dangerous when he hits the field.
Not only that, but the St. Louis Rams lost to Washington last week. Alfred Morris and Matt Jones ran over the Rams run defense. And Morris and Jones are no Le’Veon Bell and DeAngelo Williams.
The Rams didn’t have a running game against Washington, and they’re definitely not going to have one against the Steelers Defense. And in the passing game, Nick Foles has shown signs that he really misses the big targets he had in Philadelphia.
How are the Steelers favored by just one single point???
New York Jets (-2.5) over Philadelphia Eagles for $110
Are the Jets the real deal? They beat the Cleveland Browns at home in Week 1, which is no major accomplishment. Except that they scored 31 points, which is more than they scored in ANY game last year except Week 17 against the Miami Dolphins when everyone’s season was over. And Week 2, they went into Lucas Oil Field in Indianapolis, and crushed Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts 20-7. The Jets defense is the reason. 5 turnovers both weeks. 3 picks of Andrew Luck in Week 2. And they’re on top of the AFC East with the New England Patriots.
I hate to say it, but the New York Jets look good. Geno Smith is on the bench with a broken jaw. Todd Bowles has said that so long as Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing this well a few weeks from now, Geno is going to stay on the bench when his jaw is healed.
Ok, so I’ve argued the Jets are a little better than decent. “Decent” is all it takes to beat the Eagles this year. If you remember my predictions prior to Week 1, I asked if the moves that Chip Kelly made in the offseason mean that he is a genius or a “loose f*cking cannon”, and I and the rest of America believe the latter is true after the first two weeks of games.
Look, the Eagles are disaster, and this game is less than a field goal. East Rutherford is turning into a Jets town, thanks to the Giants. I’m all in on the Jets in this game, and the Under might be a good bet, except that I’m always apprehensive about Over/Unders.
The best part of the Jets success right now is that Rex Ryan is scratching his head trying to figure out what he did wrong in East Rutherford.
Cincinnati Bengals (+125) over Baltimore Ravens for $100
The Baltimore Ravens lost the Oakland Raiders in Week 2. Cincinnati BEAT the Raiders in Week 1. There is a simple reason why I am so confused about this line – I was a Math major in college, and I remember the “transitive property”. Sure, the game is going to be in Baltimore and a divisional game, but a 2-0 away team versus an 0-2 home team doesn’t make the home team a favorite.
Look at who Baltimore lost to. The Oakland Raiders in Oakland, and it’s still not determined what kind of team the Raiders are this year. The Ravens also lost to the Denver Broncos in Denver, and the Broncos are significantly over-rated this year in my humble opinion. Sure the Ravens traveled to the West Coast for those games, and playing in your own time zone is worth something, but it doesn’t make you favored.
There is value for Cincinnati this week. It would be an injustice to not take the Bengals. I don’t know of any compelling reason to bet on the Ravens for a pick’em, let alone when they’re favored.
Oakland Raider (+165) over Cleveland Browns for $100
This one is simple. Value.
Who are the Raiders? It doesn’t matter. Because who are the Browns? Junk.
The Raiders have been rebuilding for the past 13 years, and this might be the year they make the playoffs. The AFC West isn’t as strong as most analysts claim, and it’s going to be the Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs on top of that division. You heard it here.
The Browns don’t even know who their quarterback is. I’ve seen that movie before, and it doesn’t end well.
Tennessee Titans (+155) over Indianapolis Colts for $100
What is up with Colts? I’ve watched the games, but I can’t put my finger on it. Are the Colts over-rated? They got beat by the Jets! Adam Vinatieri missed an extra point! I have no analysis, no explanation, because I am just so confused right now. I’m only taking Colts games when there is a tasty money line to be had, because I’m thinking their games are coin flips right now.
What is up with the Titans? I don’t know, because they looked great against Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1, in Marcus Mariota’s first game in the NFL. Then the lost to the Cleveland Browns in Week 2??
I am totally confused. But the Titans are home underdogs, and it looks like there is some good value in the money line.
Total Bankroll: $3,550
A rough start to the season for me as, of course, teams like the Bucs, Raiders and Browns won their games. Hopefully I can bounce back a little bit this week and restore some faith in myself.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) over St. Louis Rams for $220
The Steelers put up a statement win last Sunday against the 49ers, scoring at will and showing a killer instinct early on by going for a 2-point conversion instead of settling for the new, long PAT attempt. I love that sort of aggressive decisions and those decisions are rewarded when Ben Roethlisberger is on target to his variety of weapons. To make the Rams job harder this week, LeVeon Bell is back from suspension and will make his season debut. The Rams followed up an impressive Week 1 win against the Seahawks with a stinker against the Redskins, letting Kirk Cousins and Matt Jones move up and down the field. They will find their jobs harder this week with Big Ben and Bell running the show.
New England (-13.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars for $110
I normally like to stay away from big lines like these just to avoid a garbage time touchdown covering the spread, causing me to rip my hair out, but New England had been on fire so far. Their offense looks unstoppable against good defenses, now they get to play the Jaguars at home to pad their stats. I like the Pats in a blowout, getting ahead early, then cruising to victory.
Philadelphia Eagles (+115) over NY Jets for $100
Five reasons for this pick:
- DeMarco Murray will play with a chip on his shoulder.
- I don’t think the Eagles are as bad as their 0-2 record suggests.
- I don’t think the Jets are as good as their 2-0 record suggests and they may have used up all their magic for the season after 2 games.
- I pick way too many favorites. It’s a problem I am actively working on with my gambling guru.
- The Pope will be in Philly Saturday and Sunday. That’s gotta mean something, I’m just not sure what.
Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) over Tennessee Titans for $110
Indianapolis has played terrible through two games with Andrew Luck the main problem with a QBR of 28.5. Does anyone believe that Luck is that bad? I sure don’t think so. He is going to break out sooner or later, and I think it is sooner. The Titans defense let the Browns put 28 points up on them last week, so I think the Colts have a 40+ up their sleeve. Mariota is still adapting to the pace of play in the NFL and the Colts will eat him up. Sidenote: The Titans and Jaguars actually lead the AFC South with a 1-1 record while the Texans and Colts bring up the rear at 0-2. I had to look at my screen twice to make sure I didn’t accidentally sort the rankings in reverse order.
Atlanta Falcons (-2) over Dallas Cowboys for $110
No Romo. No Bryant. No offense. If Matt Ryan can get the ball in the end zone three times, I like their chances. Brandon Weeden to Terrance Williams doesn’t have the same ring to it as Tony Romo to Dez Bryant. The Falcons are also one of my sleeper picks this season, and not just because Matt Ryan is my QB in my fantasy football league this season. They have a solid quarterback, plenty of playmakers on offense and a young defense that can be fun to watch. Add in that they play in a relatively soft division and I can see them cruising to a 3 or 4 seed in the NFC playoffs as the winner of that division.
JASON’s NCAA Picks of the Week
The # 25 Ranked Missouri Tigers (3-0) will face off against their SEC foe, Kentucky Wildcats (2-1). Kentucky will host and I expect their 60,000 plus crowd to be very loud. Coach Mark Stoops (yes, Bob Stoops brother) has a team good enough to make a 6 win season bowl run. The ‘Cats are favored by 2.5 points and I am laying $250 big ones on the Wildcats, because this is the type of game they can squeeze out a win by 3 or more. It really comes down more to that fact that Missouri always has at least one game where they inflicted with complacency. See last year when Indiana visited Missouri and snuck out with the ‘dub. Or see last week when a home field Missouri barely escaped a mistake prone Connecticut squad for a victory.
Road Grinder of the week. I am taking the # 9 Ucla Bruins (3-0 and a 4.5 point favorite), to pull off a 4th win in a row against last years PAC-12 South Division winner, Arizona Wildcats. They are also ranked # 16 with a 3-0 record. Ucla’s head man, Jim Mora has had Arizona’s number lately winning and also covering the spread. Now he has one of the best pure passing quarterbacks in the country, and the kid is just a true freshman. Drew Rosen, has moxie, last week he helped lead the bruins to two scores in the 4th quarter, including a touchdown pass, after having chucked three tosses to the wrong jersey earlier against BYU, but found a way to win late. I am laying $100 down for Ucla to win straight up, but not quite cover.