Week 5 NFL Sport Betting Predictions
Total Bankroll: $3,890
This week’s picks are a little bit later and a little bit shorter than usual. The reason? I was on a vacation, or as everyone else outside of America calls it, a “holiday”, and my priorities were relaxing with my wife. But I’m getting my picks in before Sunday, because it’s football season, and now that I’m back to reality, football is life.
So what’s happening this week? Looks like all non-divisional games. Not that they’re not important, but they don’t have the fun rivalry impact that they did last week. But there are still some great football games to watch and some great opportunity in the lines.
Unfortunately, due to the vacation I didn’t get my pick in for the Thursday night game between the Indianapolis Colts and the Houston Texans. It was a tasty money opportunity for the Colts, and I really did feel that they would win. Matt Hasselbeck is no bum. He’s got some rings on his trunk, but that means that he’s got experience and there’s a reason he’s been in the league this long. The Colts handily took care of the Texans, and I would have made some coin on that game. Woulda, coulda, shoulda doesn’t matter. The sportsbooks don’t care, and neither should you. But the Texans proved that they are a joke, and the Colts are starting to put some things together, despite being hit by injuries. I’m a Texans seller, and a Colts buyer at the right price.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+130) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers for $100
The Bucs haven’t figured it out yet. Jameis Winston has some serious potential, but he’s still green. Two years from now, he may be dangerous. But in 2015, he’s only worth my money if the value is there. Meanwhile, the Jags have been in games. They beat the Miami Dolphins in Week 2, lost to a dominating New England Patriots team in Week 3, and lost to an Indianapolis Colts team in Week 4 that may be starting to figure things out, despite the game being ugly. This is a coin flip game, and the Jags are in the money.
Atlanta Falcons (-7 EV) over Washington Redskins for $100
Really? Atlanta at home? The Washington R******s anywhere? ONLY 7 points? I usually stay away from games with a 7 point spread, unless I’m on the money line side or possibly taking the underdog with the points. It is tough to beat a 7 point spread, because so much can happen in garbage time. But the Falcons are once again unbeatable at home, and strong anywhere they play. Actually, they are unstoppable at home. And the R*****s are terrible! T-E-R-R-I-B-L-E!! The Falcons wins are getting more convincing as the season goes on. They have always had the passing game, Thanks to Dan Quinn, this they finally have a defense. And thanks to Davonta Freeman, they have ground game now too. Uh-oh. The Falcons are dangerous. And the R******s suck.
Chicago Bears (+375) over Kansas City Chiefs for $100
The Bears are 9 point underdogs and have a +375 money line against the Chiefs? Wow. Am I the only one who has seen the Chiefs play this year? I was admittedly wrong in the beginning of the season after the Chiefs beat the Houston Texans, when I thought the Chiefs were the real deal. But that was against a Texans team that is weaker than I predicted as well. Meanwhile, the Bears now have Jay Cutler back from injury and Alshon Jeffery is coming back this week. The Bears lost to solid Green Bay Packers and Arizona Cardinals teams. They also got decimated by the Seattle Seahawks in Week 3, but that was without Cutler and Jeffery. With Cutler back, they beat the Oakland Raiders last week. Meanwhile, just Jamaal Charles isn’t enough for the Chiefs to win. The Chiefs have 10 other offense positions that aren’t filled. This game is easy money, especially at 4 to 1 dogs. I’m taking the Bears.
Chicago Bears (+10) over Kansas City Chiefs for $110
Lock of the Week
This isn’t exactly “hedging” my money line bet on the Bears that I made above, but it’s as close as you can get. Look, the Chiefs can’t cover a 10 points spread. If the Chiefs score 20 points, it will be a miracle. That would mean that the Bears score less than 10 points for the Chiefs to cover. That’s just not going to happen. The Bears are not the same team that had Cutler out against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 3, and out for most of the game in Week 2 against the Arizona Cardinals. And with Alshon Jeffrey back, the Bears are borderline offensively stacked, and are poised to put up some significant points. Plus, Mike Tomlin’s defense should be able to contain Jamaal Charles after watching 4 weeks of film.
New Orleans Saints (+210) over Philadelphia Eagles for $100
The Eagles are terrible. I’ve never been a believer in a Rob Ryan defense, but if your only task is to contain a disgruntled DeMarco Murray, then that’s an easy game plan. The Saints aren’t bad, but the Eagles are terrible. At 2 to 1 dogs, I like the Saints. Heck, I’d like the Saints at 6.5 favorites, so getting positive money is amazing.
Oakland Raiders (+180) over Denver Broncos for $100
I’ve been saying for a the entire season so far that the Broncos are over-rated. And I’ve been losing a lot on the Broncos because of that in this young season. The Broncos have yet to have a convincing win, and they have yet to play a good team. In fact, the Raiders might be the best team they are facing to date, and the game is in Oakland. The Raiders aren’t bad. They can easily take the Broncos. They will take the Broncos this week. This +180 is great value.
Total Bankroll: $3,835
I did ok last week, ending slightly down, but not destroyed. Hoping I can do better and get myself in positive territory.
Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) over Cleveland Browns for $110
The Ravens are about to break out. They put themselves in a big hole, starting the season 0-3, but battled back for a big win against division rivals Pittsburgh last week. That game was last Thursday night, so the extra three days of rest and preparation favors the Ravens. Fun fact: the Ravens are 13-1 against Cleveland since John Harbaugh became the teams head coach in 2008. Domination. The 6.5 points worries me a little, as the Browns have managed to play pretty close games all season, but something about this games feels like a semi-blow out to me.
Chicago Bears (+10) over Kansas City Chiefs for $110
The Chiefs have lost their last three teams to some of the best teams in the NFL in Green Bay, Cincinnati and Denver, while the Bears welcomed the return of Jay Cutler with their first win of the season. The line is just too high on this one. The Chiefs aren’t blowing anyone out this year and the Bears offense is just good enough to keep this single digits, if nothing else, a garbage time TD pass from Cutler to cover.
New England Patriots (-8.5) over Dallas Cowboys for $220
I don’t care what the spread is. Patriots coming off a bye week, playing a Cowboys team without Romo or Bryant. I’m all over it. The Pats are averaging a two touchdown victory on the season and playing with a chip on their shoulder. I think this year is their chance to say that they can destroy opponents with or without inflated balls. Basically, I’m riding the Patriot train like it is 2007.
Pittsburgh Steelers +160 over San Diego Chargers for $100
Steelers played a very close game last week without Roethlisberger as QB and stand 3-0-1 against the spread this season. Steelers defense is a force and should be able to keep Philip Rivers contained. Not stopped, but contained. The only question is if Mike Vick can produce enough offense to keep it close. I don’t think Vick is the answer, but LeVeon Bell is. This is his week to go off. Like Adrian Peterson did against the Chargers defense a couple years ago, Bell is going to carry this Steelers team on his back until Big Ben returns. He will have a huge day, keeping the Steelers in the race for the AFC North crown.