Starting bankroll: $4,505
You might notice a change in my betting pattern this week. In the past, I’ve put down only $100 ($110 when using the spread) on each bet. This week, I’ve basically doubled my bets to $200. We know a lot right now about these teams. The lines are getting tighter, which makes it harder to find the outliers to bet on. So I can only find 4 games this week that look nice. No major money line bets, just ones that are close to even money, but I’ll still take the value where I can get it. And it also looks like I’m favoring the NFC East, because that really seems like the most interesting division right now from a certain perspective.
Let’s get to the picks….
Houston Texans (ML +115) over Indianapolis Colts for $200
The Indianapolis Colts are once again in a tailspin. Maybe Matt Hasselbeck is finally starting to show his age. He did a fine job his first four games as a replacement for Andrew Luck, but the season is taking a toll on him. But Hasselbeck is dealing with his own injuries, Andrew Luck is still uncertain for the game, so we might see Charlie Whitehurst suit up. Whitehurst is no bum, but he’s also no starter. Meanwhile, the Texans have been playing decent ball. There was a blip last week against the New England Patriots, but JJ Watt was trying to figure out how to play with his broken hand and set up as a defense end the entire game. And Bill Belichick knows Vince Wilfork pretty well, having coached him for his entire career before letting him go to Houston in the offseason. However you slice it, the Texans are going to win, and I’m rolling with them for the positive money this week.
Washington Redskins (ML +105) over Buffalo Bills for $200
The NFC East is a joke. There is a three way tie for first place, all teams with a 6-7 record. And the Dallas Cowboys are knocking on the door with a 5-8 record. With 3 games left in the season, my pick the win the division is Washington. Kirk Cousins is playing well. The defense is playing well. They own the tie-breakers. They are finding ways to win games. And the Bills are finding ways to lose close games. This one will be close. And it will come down with a 4th quarter touchdown from Kirk Cousins to that whiny brat wide receiver stud DeSean Jackson. Jackson is going to get passed up in the first half for whatever game plan a 6-7 coach of Jay Gruden draws up. The Jackson will pout every time he gets open and doesn’t get the ball, and pout during half time to be there to save the day at the end of the game. Ok, so I’m get a bit detailed in the prediction, but I feel like we’ve seen this movie before. Again, for positive money, I like Washington.
Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) over Philadelphia Eagles for $220
Lock of the Week
Three and a half points??? This is stealing. WOW! The Cardinals are going to destroy the Eagles. The Eagles play one good quarter a game. That is not going to be enough against the high powered offense that Carson Palmer leads with the Cardinals. It is not going to come down to a field goal, like those on the Eagles side are hoping for. No, Carson Palmer is going cut through that Eagles defense like butter. Easy money.
Carolina Panthers (-3.5) over New York Giants for $220
You can very well cut and paste my Cardinals vs Eagles prediction, and place it here. The Eagles and the Giants are the same team, except the Giants have Odell Beckham, Jr. and the Eagles have 3 MVP quality running backs, that are underutilized. Panthers will destroy the Giants.
Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) over Chicago Bears for $110
New England Patriots (-14) over Jacksonville Jaguars for $110
Arizona Cardinals (-4) over Philadelphia Eagles for $110
Green Bay Packers (-4) over Oakland Raiders for $220