Starting Bankroll: $4,220
Week 10 was a great week for my bankroll. Easily my best week this season. I got paid by people over-valuing the Philadelphia Eagles and the Denver Broncos. And for some reason the Arizona Cardinals were underdogs to the Seattle Seahawks. Sometimes it feels like the sports books just want to give me money. Week 11 doesn’t have many games that are the gimme’s that we had in Week 10, so we’re playing for value this week in our NFL Week 11 Betting Predictions.
Dallas Cowboys (-1) over Miami Dolphins for $110
Tony Romo is back! The Cowboys have been in a tailspin since Romo went out when the Philadelphia Eagles successful broke him in Week 2. Opponents have typically scored around 30 points, plus or minus, against the Cowboys since Romo went out. But their offense hasn’t been on the field. Even though they are 2-7, they are still in the division, because the NFC East is pretty crappy. They are playing for a win and playing for Romo. Meanwhile, Miami’s season is over. They aren’t going to win the AFC East, because the New England Patriots have too large a lead, with no signs of slowing down. And nobody from the AFC East is going to win the Wildcard. The Dolphins haven’t beaten a quality team all season, and although the Cowboys haven’t proven their a quality opponent, it’s a Romo team that might be too much for the Miami defense. This is basically a pick ’em game, but since Miami can’t win at home, they’re not going to start this Sunday.
Atlanta Falcons (-5) over Indianapolis Colts for $110
The Indianapolis Colts are a JV team playing with the big boys. For some reason Andrew Luck has deteriorated from his amazing start out of college. I don’t know why, and I don’t care. I just know that the Colts getting 5 points on the road against anyone is a great time to bet the other side. And this week, it’s the Atlanta Falcons giving the 5 points at home. The Falcons were once unstoppable at home, and they now have some kinks in their armor. But they are still tough to beat at home, and the Colts are a team that can’t buy a win. This pick is a piece of cake.
Houston Texans (ML +160) over New York Jets for $100
T.J. Yates. Remember his breakout in 2011 when he took over as Texans qb after Matt Leinart went down with an injury and led them to a playoff win? Yates lit it up, and I was shocked when he started 2012 on the bench. Sure, he’s been mediocre at best since then, but he hasn’t had the chance to be a consistent starter. He’s had the opportunity to learn from some great quarterbacks like Matt Shaub and Matt Ryan. Now he’s here again in the same spot as 2011. Brian Hoyer went down with an injury last week as the Houston Texans are right in the middle of a race for a playoff spot at 4-5. They are tied for the division lead with the Indianapolis Colts. This is going to be the breakout year for T.J. Yates. Teams will take notice. Brian Hoyer is going to be looking for a job next year, because the Texans will finally take notice and name T.J. Yates their 2016 starter. The New York Jets are playing for contracts. There is no way they win the AFC East, since the New England Patriots basically sealed that 4 weeks ago. And at 5-4, they would have to go on a serious run to have a chance at a Wilcard spot. The Jets aren’t bad this year, except for the loss against the Buffalo Bills last week. I don’t know about the Jets, but I do know about the Texans with Yates at the wheel. And let’s also not forget the Texans defense effectively shut down the high powered Cincinnati Bengals offense last Monday night.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ML +210) over Philadelphia Eagles for $100
Mark Sanchez is running the Philadelphia Eagles offense Week 11. He hasn’t had a legitimate start since that amazing butt-fumble. Sam Bradford is out with an injury, and Ryan Matthews is out with a concussion. Jameis Winston might be figuring out how to play in the NFL consistently with the help of Mike Evans. Look, I can try to analyze the intricacies of this game, or try to think of something clever, but the fact is that Mark Sanchez is starting for the Eagles. He’s going to overthrow receivers, underthrow receivers, throw behind receivers, and will be relying on DeMarco Murray to run 250 yards. Possible, but with Mark Sanchez’ 3 and outs and turnovers, the Bucs will be on the field enough to score points.
Cincinnati Bengals (ML +190) over Arizona Cardinals for $100
Aside from a hiccup on Monday night against the Houston Texans, the Bengals have been unstoppable. They haven’t had any opponents as tough as the Cardinals, but they have played really well. The loss against the Texans was humbling, and probably something the Bengals needed. This will be the most challenging game of the season for the Bengals. Think about it, they’re going to enter the playoffs with a first round Bye, and then who are they going to play? The Denver Broncos? The Kansas City Chiefs? The Indianapolis Colts? This is a Bengals team that is going to shut up critics. That doesn’t mean the Cardinals aren’t going to put up 97 points this week, because they will. The Bengals are going to be playing catch up. But at 2 to 1 underdogs as an 8-1 team, I’ll take it.
Atlanta Falcons (-5) over Indianapolis Colts for $110
NY Jets (-3) over Houston Texans for $110
Tampa Bay (+220) over Philadelphia Eagles for $100
Green Bay Packers (PK) over Minnesota Vikings for $110
Cincinnati Bengals (+190) over Arizona Cardinals for $100
New England (-7) over Buffalo Bills for $220