Starting Bankroll: $3,460
It has been a rough couple of weeks that have really drained my bankroll. I had taken a couple of longshot money like bets that didn’t hit. I had been a seller on the Kansas City Chiefs, but they have been stringing together some wins, despite losing Jamaal Charles for the season. The New York Giants have somehow been putting together some wins, meanwhile the Dallas Cowboys are proving just how valuable that Tony Romo is to the team. On the other hand, the Denver Broncos finally played a game where they didn’t get saved by the defense against the Indianapolis Colts last week. I have certainly learned something, now let’s apply it and make some money.
Chicago Bears (+270) over St. Louis Rams for $100
Value. Jay Cutler or Nick Foles. Jeremy Langford taking over for an injured Matt Forte or Todd Gurley. Alshon Jeffrey or Kenny Britt. The Chicago Bears defense has given up about 10 more points a game than the St. Louis Rams. But the Bears schedule has been tough. They are 3-5 and the Rams are arguably the worst team they have played so far this season. The Rams are 4-4, and they have had a cream puff schedule compared to the Bears. The Rams lost to the Redskins. And 2 of their wins were against teams playing for draft position like the Cleveland Browns and the San Francisco 49ers. I don’t know how the Bears are so large of an underdog. There is significant value in this game, despite the game being played in St. Louis.
New Orleans Saints (EV) over Washington Redskins for $110
Lock of the Week
I have no idea how this is a pick ’em. The Washington Redskins are a terrible team in a terrible division. Their three wins have been against the St. Louis Rams, the Philadelphia Eagles, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Nothing to write home about. The New Orleans Saints aren’t the same team without Jimmy Graham, but they are still the Saints with Drew Brees, Sean Payton, Mark Ingram, and wide receivers like Willie Snead stepping up. The Saints offense has been putting it together with 34 points against the Tennesee Titans last week and 52 points against the New York Giants in Week 8. The fewest points they have scored all season is 26. There is no way they will score less than 26 against Washington. And there is no way Washington can put up 26 against the Saints. Easy money.
Miami Dolphins (+240) over Philadelphia Eagles for $100
I feel like a broken record when I keep writing in this column that the Eagles are terrible. But I keep getting burned. They win, but they aren’t pretty wins. They win, but they aren’t believable wins. They win, but I always shut off the tv after the game wondering how they did it. Fortunately for the Eagles, they are in a very weak NFC East, and if you take out the New England Patriots, the Miami Dolphins are in a mediocre AFC East. Are the Dolphins good? Not really. Can they stop DeMarco Murray or Ryan Matthews? Probably not consistently. But the Eagles will find a way to lose. At 2.5 to 1 underdogs, I like the Dolphins chances to pay out this Sunday.
Kansas City Chiefs (+210) over Denver Broncos for $100
I have been saying all season that the Denver Broncos offense is over-rated. It just isn’t good. I also keep saying that there is no way the defense can keep scoring like it has been. But I keep putting my foot in my mouth. Last week against the Indianapolis Colts it was a special teams punt return as the clock ran out in the first half. Bonehead move by Indy, but not enough to make up for the weak offense the Broncos keep putting out on the field. Meanwhile, I have also been selling the Chiefs, especially since Jamaal Charles went down. But they find ways to win. Offense, defense, special teams. They do it. At 2 to 1 underdogs, I like the Broncos to continue their self-destruction and for the defense to finally fail to win a game for them.
Arizona Cardinals (+150) over Seattle Seahawks for $100
Oh, the Seattle Seahawks. What has happened this season? Legion of Boom, or Legion of Bust? Russell Wilson got himself a nice contract this past offseason after two straight Super Bowl appearances, and after 8 games he has 9 TDs and 6 Interceptions. The Seahawks haven’t beaten a good team all season. And it’s not going to start against the Arizona Cardinals. Carson Palmer is having a Pro Bowl season, and the Seahawks secondary isn’t going to scare him. The value is on the Cardinals, and since they are going to win anyway, this is easy money.
Dallas Cowboys (+105) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers for $200
The Boys played pretty well last week, taking Philadelphia to OT before dropping the game, but they looked better on offense with Dez Bryant back and Darren McFadden looking like the top-5 pick he was intended to be. The Bucs are a hit or miss team and this week is going to be a miss.
Cleveland Browns (+200) over Pittsburgh Steelers for $100
Maybe I’m being hopeful, but without Big Ben, this is an actual contest. The Browns have been playing close games pretty much all season and I think they might be able to sneak one past the Steelers this week.
New England Patriots (-7) over New York Giants for $110
I just don’t care what the spread is anymore. Bet on New England! Now, if they were playing the Giants in the Super Bowl, I might give pause, but in November, bet on the Pats.
Cincinnati Bengals (-11) over Houston Texans for $110
The Bengals are just playing too well right now. Cincinnati played last Thursday and then get the Monday night game, giving them what amounts to an extra bye week. They will be rested and take it to the vastly inferior Texans team.