Week 6 NFL Sport Betting Predictions
Total Bankroll: $3,965
You can find my recap of the Week 5 results here. My record wasn’t great, but I was saved by some money line upsets. I love me some money line where I see some great value.
I have noted here before that I am a New England Patriots fan, and I don’t bet on my teams. It is hard to disassociate betting with your head and betting with your heart. I don’t want to get in that situation when I’m trying to determine if it’s my head or my heart talking. So I just stay away from betting the Patriots games.
That being said, the Patriots are going to destroy the Indianapolis Colts this Sunday night. Unless you have been living under a rock since last January’s AFC Championship game when the whole Deflategate scandal erupted, you know why this game has meaning. The Patriots get motivation by seemingly inconsequential quotes by their opponents the week before a game. What Jim Irsay and the Colts caused the Patriots this offseason is so much more than a simple motivational quote. Regardless of what Tom Brady said about not treating this game any differently than any other game he has played, the world knows this game means more to him than any non-playoff game. I wouldn’t doubt if Tom Brady requests the footballs to be inflated to maximum 13.5 psi, and asks the officials to test them after every possession. And then he’ll throw for over 400 yards with at least 4 touchdowns in the air. And that’s just Tom Brady. Bill Belichick wants even more blood. The NFL took away his draft picks. He’s going to motivate the defense to not allow a single first down for the Colts, and Dion Lewis and LeGarrette Blount will each get at last one touchdown. He’ll probably even throw in James White or Brandon Bolden for some goal line touches.
The point spread on the Patriots game is 10 points, after opening at 6.5. I wouldn’t doubt if it ends up at 11.5 prior to the snap. Whatever the point spread is, put all your money on the Patriots. Empty your bank accounts, empty your 401k, pawn your car, pawn your wife’s engagement ring, because the Patriots are going to win by 40 points this week against the Colts. Just don’t pawn your tv, because you’re going to watch this historic game.
Whew! Enough about a game that I won’t bet on. Now let’s get to my Week 6 picks.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) over Buffalo Bills for $110
The Cincinnati Bengals are a team on fire. They may not have many commanding wins, but their offense hasn’t scored less than 24 in a game. But their defense hasn’t given up more than 24 points in a game. Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills are another Rex Ryan team that is having a hard time finding it’s way. I like the Bills when the money is good against other average teams. But the Bengals are favored by just over a field goal…a dangerous number…but the Bengals should be able to handily cover that. There is always a chance that the Bills pull out their firepower for this week, but then still fall 4 points short. Meanwhile Andy Dalton gets better every week. Watch out for the Bengals this year.
Jacksonville Jaguars (EV) over Houston Texans for $110
The Houston Texans have lost their way. They don’t know if their quarterback is Brian Hoyer or Ryan Mallet. Their defense has given up at least 24 points in all of their losses, but held the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to 9 points in their only win. Meanwhile, Blake Bortles is quietly leading his Jacksonville Jaguars to mediocrity, which is strides ahead of where they have been year the past 10 years. Not only that, but the Jags get Julius Thomas back for his second week of the season. Bortles is not Peyton Manning, but I’m excited to see what he can do with a healthy 6 foot 5 inch 260 pound tight end that has been one of the best in the league the past 4 years. The sports books call this a coin flip, but I know the Jags have a solid chance at this game against the floundering Texans.
Minnesota Vikings (-4) over Kansas City Chiefs for $110
Lock of the Week
Jamaal Charles was the Kansas City Chiefs offense. The Chiefs lost Jamaal Charles for the season. They’re done. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Vikings are pretty ok. The Chiefs would lose to my middle school Junior Varsity team, so the Vikings covering 4 points will be a piece of cake…all the Vikings have to do is kick 2 field goals, and this game is sealed.
Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) over Pittsburg Steelers for $110
Big Ben Roethlisberger is out. Michael Vick is decent short term replacement, but the Steelers offense was built around Big Ben and Le’Veon Bell. Sure Bell is back, but Ben makes Bell so much better. The Cardinals offense is ridiculous. And the defense is forcing turnovers. They are a complete team. The NFC West is theirs.
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) over San Francisco 49ers for $110
The Baltimore Ravens are terrible. But the San Francisco 49ers are just more terrible than getting 2.5 points, even if it is at home. The Niners are self-destructing this year.
New York Giants (+180) over Philadelphia Eagles for $100
The Philadelphia Eagles are terrible. The New York Giants aren’t great either. Both teams can self destruct in any game. The Eagles defense has proven to be pretty good this year, but Eli Manning somehow gets his receivers to bail him out for a well time long bomb that turns into a touchdown possession. Let’s say it’s a coin flip game, or close to coin flip game, there is no way the Giants are 2 to 1 underdogs. This is a value play.
Carolina Panthers (+260) over Seattle Seahawks for $100
Dan Quinn is now the Atlanta Falcons head coach. He was clearly the defensive genius that got the Seahawks to the Super Bowl the past two season, including the win 2 years ago. Aside from shutting out a Cutler-less Chicago Bears, and taming the Detroit Lions, the defense has given up a minimum of 27 points in every other game. All the while the Carolina Panthers have found themselves 4-0. Granted, they haven’t had a real opponent this year, but the Seahawks aren’t going to be the first. The Panthers are a 4-0 team as 2.5 to 1 underdogs against a 2-3 team. Yes, the 12th Man of the fans at CenturyLink Field is a powerful force, but the money is good on the Panthers, so let’s hope the 12th man has little effect on the Panthers offense.
Total Bankroll: $4,315
Last week went really well for my picking. Only picking four games, I nailed three out of four, one game doubling my bet and another taking the money line on an underdog. I finally pulled myself out of the red and find myself with an imaginary profit. So, what does someone like me do when they have a good week? Press their luck! Let’s bet on more games and put more imaginary money at risk. If I can keep this up, I can convince myself that I’m actually good at this! I’m actually not picking the Patriots this week (shocking) as the 10 point spread, Andrew Luck’s improved health and game being played in Indianapolis scared me off despite my gut feeling that New England will absolutely destroy every team this year, purely for Deflategate spite. Without further ado, here are my non-guaranteed picks.
Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) over New Orleans Saints for $220
Love this matchup for a bunch of reasons. Divisional rivals. Undefeated Falcons. Game is in a dome, so the Falcons won’t have much of an offensive drop due to being on the road. Short week can’t be good for a banged up Drew Brees, who, face it, is the only possible reason for this to be a close game. If Brees lights it up, it will be close, if he plays anything like his 50.5 QBR he has this year, the Falcons will win by double digits. Matt Ryan, Devonta Freeman and Julio Jones create a formidable offense that is evenly balanced between run and pass. Jones is nursing an injury, so he might not even play, but Ryan will simply rely on other targets like Leonard Hankerson, Roddy White and Jacob Tamme. I think Jones’ injury is the only thing keeping this line around a field goal instead of a touchdown. In the end, I don’t think it will matter with the Falcons taking this one easily.
Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers for $110
When will the Cardinals get the respect they deserve? Sure, their roster isn’t full of fantasy superstars, but this team has followed up an impressive run last year with a 4-1 start this year, outscoring their opponents by a whopping 100 points after just five games. No Ben Roethlisberger again, which means more Mike Vick. He was decent on Monday night but LeVeon Bell was the star. However, I think the Steelers will have a much harder time moving the ball against the extremely tough Cardinals defense. Sure, the game is in Pittsburgh, but the Cardinals can’t afford to drop this one against Vick and the Steelers. It might not be a blow out, but if the Cardinals can get an early lead, don’t expect the Steelers to make any comebacks or even get a backdoor cover of the spread.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) over Buffalo Bills for $110
Bengals are good, Bills are average. Tyrod Taylor, LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins are all injury and may or may not play. The Bengals are coming off of their impressive comeback victory over the Seahawks and look to keep their undefeated season going. Andy Dalton has looked like an MVP this year and they look like a team that doesn’t have a let-down game. This would be one of those scenarios. It would be a surprise to see the Bills take this one, even at home.
San Francisco (+2.5) over Baltimore Ravens for $110
Homer alert. As a Niner fan, this has been a tough start to the season. Last week, they came ever so close to stealing a win on the road in New York, but Eli Manning and his heroics saved the day. The good news? I think the San Francisco offense turned the corner. Colin Kaepernick was under all kinds of pressure after dropping three in a row, looking awful in the process. But last week, he looked like the Kaepernick of old, making plays and just playing the game. I mean, who need mechanics? It sounds weird, but that is not his game. He is at his best when he is running, making plays, not staying in the pocket going through receiver options. Perhaps this pick is a bit of a stretch, but I would not be surprised to see Kaepernick and the Niners put up a big number against a very weak Ravens defense.
Washington R******s (+6) over New York Jets for $110 and…
Money line at +220 for $100
Maybe I’m not paying close enough to the NFL this year, but I am not on the Jets bandwagon. Their offense needs work, but at least their defense is solid. I see a low scoring, close game here and the R******s finally pulling a close one out. They took the Falcons to OT last week on the road and will successfully pull off the upset this week. This not exactly a marque quarterback matchup with Ryan Fitzpatrick against Kirk Cousins, which makes the 6 point spread more appetizing. I’m feeling a close game and hopefully they can pull it off, giving me a bigger fake payday.
New York Giants (+4) over Philadelphia Eagles for $220 and…
Money line at +170 for $100
This is the point in the season where Eli Manning wills his Giants to victory. The NFC East is vulnerable with injuries in Dallas, general mediocrity in Washington and underachieving/adjusting in Philadelphia. The Chip Kelly/Sam Bradford marriage has been rocky and unimpressive. They beat the heck out of New Orleans last week, but is that really that impressive? Eli Manning has a 10-2 TD-INT ratio this year and is keeping the Giants competitive, winning their last three games to take the lead in the NFC East. Watch this line shift awfully close to even if/when Odell Beckham Jr. gets the green light for playing on Monday night. We shall see.